China Sees Growing Appetite for Bauxite Imports in 2024

An analysis from BRS's Dry Bulk Weekly Newsletter has been cited in the following article: https://splash247.com/guinea-replaces-brazil-on-the-cape-podium/

In BRS' Dry Bulk Weekly Newsletter our senior in-house analyst explores the recovery in China’s appetite for Bauxite ore imports (Issue #117).

China's domestic alumina production capacity stood at 102 million tonnes per year. In April 2024, China saw a significant rise in bauxite imports, which is a key raw material for alumina production, totalling 14.24 million tonnes. Guinea was the largest supplier, providing 10.5 million tonnes, marking an 18.3% increase year-on-year. Australia followed with 3.13 million tonnes, up 26.3% month-on-month, and 9.6% year-on-year. Imports from non-mainstream countries also rose to hit 610,000 tonnes, an increase of 8.5% month-on-month and 130% year-on-year.

The Guinea/China trade route is crucial for Capesize segment (160,000 – 219,000 Dwt), and in early 2024 it is nearly on par and mirror the critical Brazil/China route in volume. This growing route has become a key pillar for large-sized vessel demand, and the route has replaced Brazil in terms of tonne-days so far this year.

Guinea shipped 36.13 million tonnes of bauxite ore in the first four months of 2024, slightly above the previous year's figures. However, the upcoming rainy season is expected to reduce mining and loading efficiency, impacting seaborne exports from July until September. Recent infrastructure developments, like the completion of the Boke bauxite terminal in Guinea, are set to enhance export efficiency.

However, the market expectations going forward is that despite significant growth compared to early 2024, imports have not met the market’s initial expectations of a 15% increase. Nonetheless, improved demand and increased supply are expected to sustain China’s bauxite imports.

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