Black Sea Grain Exports 1Q-2024: Blood, Sweat, and Tears

BRS’ grain analyst was cited by Lloyd’s List Intelligence for insights on the Ukraine’s grain exports. The Black Sea grain market has beaten expectations, as exports are showing unexpectedly strong volumes, supported by Ukraine’s shipments’ resilience.

Read the full Lloyd’s List article on Ukrainian grain exports rebound here: https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1148978/Ukrainian-grain-exports-rebound-as-ship-arrivals-near-pre-war-levels

Black Sea Grain Market Performance. Despite initial fears over the expiration of the Black Sea grain export corridor in July 2023, the market has performed better than expected. Exports from the region have shown strong volumes, particularly supported by Ukraine's resilient shipments. AXSMarine reported that Ukraine shipped 12.3 mln mt of grain via the Black Sea in 1Q24, up ca. 20% YoY.

The Impact of Suez Canal. The Red Sea remains a crucial waypoint for cargoes traveling between the Black Sea, and the Far East. Houthi attack on shipping in the Gulf of Aden persists and have led many shipowners to avoid the route. While Black Sea grain exports to the Far East and Southeast Asia have remained strong, there has been a slight decrease compared to the previous year. Most of the shipments passing through the Suez Canal have loaded in the Black Sea, indicating a significant trade segment for particularly Handysize to Ultramax-sized vessels.

USDA Forecasts and Ukrainian Exports. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised upward its forecasts for Ukrainian wheat and corn exports. Despite challenges such as the ongoing war, Ukrainian crop exports remain resilient, boosting expectations for the season. Ukraine has emerged as the top exporter in the Black Sea region, competing with Russia. Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea have increased by about 20% year-on-year, reaching 12.3 million metric tons in the first three months of 2024. Overall, Black Sea grain exports for the first quarter of 2024 are 8% higher year-on-year.

For more information, please consult your BRS broker or contact research@brsbrokers.com regarding the Monthly Dry Bulk Grain Newsletter. You can also access additional insights by reading Dry Bulk Weekly Newsletter, Issue #111.